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sonyaany
Pridružen/-a: 05.03. 2016, 04:35
Prispevkov: 45
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 Objavljeno: 09 Avg 2016 09:23 Naslov sporočila: nike official store 2016 |
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Pick Your Scenario
Under Armour (NYSE:UA) is widely expected to provide a "connected fitness" strategy and to announce a major initiative in the wearable device market when it holds its Investor Day on September 16. Indeed, the company has the world's largest connected fitness platform, with 140m users (well ahead of Fitbit (NYSE:FIT) 19m users and Nike (NYSE:NKE) 25m users), and now must find ways to monetize it.
This (expected) initiative, combined with the company's footwear and overseas development and expansion into new sport categories (soccer, tennis.) suggests that the revenue momentum (+31% at constant FX in Q2) is likely to remain extremely healthy in the quarters and years to come.
That said, the stock's impressive run (+42% year to date) and high valuation levels (90x 2015 EPS, 69x 2016) have become a source of concern for many investors. As the P/E can be misleading for a company that is at an early stage of its development, we have decided to perform a DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation of Under Armour actually, two valuations (a bull and a bear case) to better assess the Nike Air Max Womens Shoes risk/reward. In our view, a DCF valuation is well suited to Under Armour, as it enables us to capture the long term potential (revenues and margins) of the company.
We use a discount rate of 7.6% and make the following assumptions:
Organic revenue growth remains above 20% until 2019 as the company's numerous growth drivers (expansion into new categories, international growth, wearables) deliver.
Over the next decade, Under Armour grows at an 18% CAGR. By 2025, the company generates $21bn in revenue (compared to $30bn for Nike Air Max Womens 2016 Nike and $18bn for Adidas (OTCQX:ADDYY) in 2015) and still delivers a comfortable 11% revenue growth (roughly in line with Nike's current growth at constant FX).
Under Armour's long term operating margin reaches 16%. While we assume a 14% margin for the core apparel and footwear business in line with Nike's current margin, we believe that wearables could enhance group margins by 200bps.
Indeed, wearables can be a highly profitable business (Fitbit is expected to post margins in the low 20s over next years) and could account for 30% of Under Armour's revenues in the long term.
The growth rate in perpetuity is 3%.
We get to a $120 valuation, or 24% upside.
Over the next decade, Under Armour grows at a 16% CAGR. By 2025, the company generates $16bn revenues and delivers 9% revenue growth.
These assumptions are less aggressive than in the bull case, as we consider that the wearable business takeoff and the product and geographic expansion could be slower than expected.
Under Armour's long term operating margin reaches 14%, in line with Nike's current margin. We assume here that competition could heat up in the wearable device market, putting pressure on its Nike Air Max Womens Shoes profitability. Hence, we consider that the company's wearable business will post margins only in line with the core apparel and footwear business (14%).
The growth rate in perpetuity is 2.5%.
We get to a $81 valuation, or 16% downside.
With 24% upside in a bull case and 16% downside in a bear case, the risk/reward on Under Armour appears positive, and we would be buyers of the stock at current levels.
Importantly, the September 16 Investor Day could act as a catalyst, as it could support the aggressive forecasts we have in our bull DCF.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it Cheap Nike Air Max Womens expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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