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"WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Twinkie Town Farm ReportSatire http://www.twinsfanproshop.com/authentic-max-kepler-jersey , Irreverence, & Other HumorGame RecapsAnalysisWhat should we really expect from Martin Perez?New,12commentsWill a new pitching approach outweigh past performance?EDTShareTweetShareShareWhat should we really expect from Martin Perez?When was the last time the Twins had a lefty starter that threw 97 MPH?Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY SportsWhen it was announced on January 19th that the Twins were preparing to ink a deal with left-handed starter Martin Perez, many Minnesota fans questioned the move. It doesn’t take long to figure out why he wasn’t at the top of fans’ free agent wish list, as Perez sported a 6.22 ERA in 2018-19 with the Rangers. Along with his poor prior season, Perez hasn’t produced a WHIP below 1.4 since 2014, and his K/9 hasn’t topped 6.1 his entire career.Fast forward to the present, where the hype around the 27-year old is real. Perez gave up just up two runs in his first nine innings of spring training this year while striking out seven, but the real upswing in his stock has come from his evolving pitch arsenal and work with the Twins staff.In his last start Perez was stretched out a bit and did not produce the same results, giving up five earned runs on six hits against the Nationals. The former Ranger also struck out just three batters and gave up two free passes in is longest appearance of spring training.So what version of Perez should we actually expect in 2019, and how much will his renewed pitching philosophy and increased velocity mean to his results? As Twins fans already know, Perez hasn’t had a lot of success in his career, with a lifetime ERA of 4.63. However, he did show some promise in his early years, finishing sixth in AL Rookie of the Year balloting in 2013. Perez posted a 3.62 ERA in 124.1 innings in that season with a career-high ERA+ of 114.Perez and his fun-colored gloves had success early in his Rangers career.Kiel Maddox-USA TODAY SportsThat season was Perez’s peak in velocity, as his fastball averaged nearly 94 miles per hour (whereas last year he averaged just a bit above 92.5 MPH). While batters had decent success against his heater that season, his changeup was top notch. Opposing batters hit just .174 (with a .219 wOBA) against the pitch in that season with a 39% whiff rate. Last year Perez’s change was smacked around the park, as batters slugged .561 when he threw it and recorded a .425 wOBA. Ideally, Perez’s uptick in velocity this season will help him regain the effectiveness that his changeup once possessed.Another adjustment to Perez’s arsenal that the Twins are scraping his slider and replacing it with a 90-91 MPH cutter. Batter have ripped Perez’s slider in the last two seasons, with a .564 wOBA against it in 2018 and a .390 wOBA in 2017. Perez had a lot of success with the slider in previous seasons, as opposing batters had not produced a wOBA on the pitch above .304 prior to 2017. It’s hard to say how effective the cutter will be right off of the bat, but if the Twins coaching staff can help him make adjustments to the pitch it could be a solid secondary offering Byron Buxton Jersey , especially against lefties.Although Perez hit rock bottom last year with a 6.22 ERA in 85.1 innings pitched, he was an innings eater in the previous two seasons. The Venezuelan left-hander tossed 198.2 innings (4.39 ERA) in 2016 and 185.0 innings (4.82 ERA) in 2017. Though the ERA numbers weren’t great, Perez provided decent back-end of the rotation seasons, and could certainly do so again in 2019.Perez was easily a buy-low target by the Twins in the offseason and it seems likely that he will improve on his 2018 campaign, with the real question being how much.If Perez can return to his 2016-17 form, he will be a decent #5 for the Twins and provide steady innings that have been hard for the Twins to find in recent seasons. Plagued with injuries in 2018, I think it is likely that Perez can produce similar number this season if healthy. It will look like the Twins got a steal if they get anything more form Perez, which only time will tell. It’s tough to foresee a big jump in performance for the 27-year old based on his career inability to miss bats and be consistent, though there are quite a few unknowns in play. Perez has never thrown as hard as he is throwing this spring, and I’d imagine that his pitch arsenal (as well as how often he throws each pitch) will look significantly different in 2019.New Twins pitching coach Wes Johnson is another big variable in the equation. It will be interesting to see how Johnson’s philosophy that focuses on increased velocity will play out during a 162-game MLB season, but his results in college ranks speak for themselves. Johnson was able to mold college arms into MLB prospects, helping 30 college pitchers get their name called in the ametur draft. Johnson’s teams saw an uptick in strikeouts as well, as Arkansas (where he coached last year) made a trip to the College World Series. With many variables in play for Martin Perez and his 2019 season, it is tough to tell how much the former Ranger will bounce back. But with Perez’s uptick in velocity along with the new coaching staff’s adjustments to his arsenal, it’s hard to guess that Perez will improve in 2019. How much he improves will be interesting to track, especially when he stretched out to full-length starts once the season begins.With a one-year, four-million dollar contract, Perez is a low-risk move with a potentially higher reward for Falvine. The Twins also have a second-year option of Perez, worth 7.5 million. Aaron Gleeman and John Bonnes mentioned on their podcast that a good measure of Perez’s success this season will be if the Twins decide to pick up that option, which is a sentiment that I happen to agree with. If Perez is worth 7.5 million next season, it means that he has solidified himself as a solid back-end starter, something the Twins could certainly use. It will also signify the success of the Twins new pitching philosophy and coaches http://www.twinsfanproshop.com/authentic-max-kepler-jersey , who are poised to make a big impact on a staff that didn’t change that much from the 2018 bunch. Whatever ends up happening with Martin Perez, his performance this season will be one of the many interesting storylines for Twins fans to follow.Prediction Time: I think Perez will become a usable starter for the Twins and post an ERA around 4.10, hopefully throwing around 140 innings. I don’t think he will be able to stay healthy the entire season, but if he can give the Twins those kind of numbers, he will be well worth the four millions dollars the Twins are paying him in 2019.Let me know how you think Perez will perform in the comments section below! NEW YORK (AP) — Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola are going pitch for pitch in the NL Cy Young Award race.Problem is, that prize might not do the trio justice. Not according to baseball’s advanced analytics.With 2½ weeks left in the season, it’s time to ask: Should one of those three be MVP?“It’s the best player in the league,” deGrom said. “If that happens to be a pitcher and they can win it, then it’s well deserved.”There’s no debating deGrom’s dominance, even if it’s not translating into wins for the struggling New York Mets. Scherzer’s awards-season resume is more traditional, bolstered by league-leading totals in victories and strikeouts. And Nola is right there, too, in a breakout season with the Philadelphia Phillies.But an MVP? For three pitchers who are going to miss the postseason? Some don’t think pitchers should even be considered for the award, though they’ve won 25 times before.The stats devised by sabermetricians suggest it would be a swing and a miss not to consider a pitcher — certainly not in a year when the crop of NL hitters just doesn’t add up.The National League has produced at least one hitter worth 6.0 wins above replacement (WAR) each season since the Chicago Cubs‘ Hack Wilson topped 1926 at 5.7, according to Fangraphs.This year’s group is equally underwhelming, strictly by the numbers. Milwaukee teammates Lorenzo Cain (5.4) and Christian Yelich (5.3) top the circuit, followed by Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt (5.2), St. Louis’ Matt Carpenter (5.2), Chicago’s Javier Baez (4.9) and Colorado’s Nolan Arenado (4. .For a catch-all stat like WAR — which measures contributions on offense, defense, baserunning and pitching — that 0.6 gap from Arenado on up is nearly negligible. Can’t go wrong choosing among them.But that group is far behind the league’s top pitchers by the same measure. DeGrom leads the NL with 8.1 WAR http://www.twinsfanproshop.com/authentic-max-kepler-jersey , and Scherzer, Nola and Diamondbacks ace Patrick Corbin are also ahead of the hitters. Over at Baseball-Reference, which has its own WAR formula, Scherzer (9.7) holds the top spot way ahead of Cain (6.3), with Nola, deGrom and Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland all beating the batters.It’s unusual, but not unheard of, for a pitcher to lead a league in WAR. By Baseball-Reference’s math, Clayton Kershaw did it when he won NL MVP in 2014, as did Justin Verlander for his AL MVP in 2011. Corey Kluber, Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Zack Greinke each did it over the past decade, too. But in the age of ever-tighter pitch counts and innings limits, it’s not as common as it once was and figures to keep getting tougher.Of the 25 pitcher MVPs, 14 were awarded before the Cy Young Award was introduced in 1956. Prior to Kershaw and Verlander, the previous pitcher winner was reliever Dennis Eckersley in 1992, and the prior starter to take MVP was Roger Clemens in 1986.Marlins manager and 1985 AL MVP Don Mattingly was the runner-up to Clemens that year — and wasn’t thrilled about it.“Hard for me as a player, to kind of know I play 160 games or whatever it is and then somebody has 30, 35 starts,” Mattingly said.He’s changed his mind since becoming a manager. Doesn’t hurt that he was leading the Dodgers when Kershaw won MVP.“If you’re talking about them as Cy Young and MVPs, they’re guys that are basically taking care of your bullpen that day, stopping any kind of streaks Jason Castro Jersey , adding to streaks — a guy you know you can count on,” Mattingly said.Mattingly has seen plenty of deGrom, Scherzer and Nola in the NL East.“I can see where you could look at them as being most valuable player,” he said.The cases for those pitchers are a little different from their predecessors — especially for deGrom.The Mets ace is just 8-9, putting him in the historic position of having more WAR than wins. According to Baseball-Reference’s records, deGrom would be just the second qualified pitcher ever to have more WAR than wins, following Eddie Smith (4-17 record, 4.1 WAR) with the Philadelphia Athletics in 1937.At this point, deGrom’s underwhelming win total probably won’t hurt him much in Cy Young balloting. Voters set aside the stat when crowning Seattle’s Felix Hernandez in 2010 despite a 13-12 mark, and the electorate seems to agree that victories aren’t paramount to being the best pitcher.But to be the most valuable? Voters might still be stuck on wins there. Opinions are all over the board on how to quantify value — some voters insist MVPs have to come from winning teams, others see winning as something of a tiebreaker, and a growing number of progressive writers try to separate a player’s performance from that of his teammates entirely.That’s where deGrom’s candidacy could fall apart. Of the 21 starting pitchers to win MVP, all of them won at least 20 games. DeGrom is going to have a hard time winning 10.That’s not deGrom’s fault, of course. He has a 1.71 ERA this season, and yet New York is 12-17 behind him thanks to minimal run support.DeGrom has taken to helping himself, driving in four runs since Aug. 3, including New York’s only RBIs in 2-1 losses to the Braves and Cubs.Scherzer has been even better with the bat. He’s hitting .270 with six RBIs and a stolen base. Those contributions won’t help him stave off deGrom in his pursuit for a fourth Cy Young and third straight in the NL, but it could sway some MVP voters.Nola’s pitch seems to have lost a little steam as the Phillies have faded out of the playoff picture. Philadelphia dropped 6½ games behind Atlanta in the NL East after getting swept by the Nationals in a doubleheader Tuesday. Nola was 16-4 with a 2.29 ERA prior to a start Wednesday and wasn’t far behind Scherzer with 8.9 WAR, per Baseball-Reference.Unless a hitter separates from the pack over the final couple weeks, one of those three just might be an MVP.“It’s been done before,” Mets manager Mickey Callaway said. “They should be considered.” |
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